New AI Newsletter – Leading Indicator: AI In Education

Last week my colleagues Alex Spurrier and Marisa Mission launched the first edition of a new Bellwether newsletter focused on AI. I’m crossposting the first one in its entirety and hope you will subscribe to get future ones by signing up here. – AR

June 2024

By Alex Spurrier and Marisa Mission

We’re sharing the first issue of this newsletter with all our subscribers, but if you want to receive future updates on the latest AI news, be sure to subscribe here.

The education sector is no stranger to technological fads and shifts. Flipped classrooms, Massively Open Online Courses, 1:1 device programs, and other tech-forward approaches are variations on the same tune: over-hyped introduction, muddled and inconsistent implementation, and results that fall well short of their initial, transformative promise. 

The introduction of ChatGPT nearly two years ago felt like a renewal of this all-too-familiar cycle. But there’s good reason to believe the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in education will present a far different challenge to educators and policymakers, with far more impact than prior ed tech offerings. Within two months, ChatGPT reached 100 million users, making it the fastest-growing consumer app in history. New AI tools – including ChatGPTClaude, and others – are already used formally and unofficially in schools by students and educators. Meanwhile, districtstate, and federal policymakers have struggled to catch up and regulate a fast-moving environment. 

Bellwether’s Leading Indicator: AI in Education newsletter helps folks working in the education sector, from teachers and administrators to policymakers and funders, stay current with the latest AI developments and understand what this fast-moving technology means for sector-wide policy and practice. We’ll cover education-specific AI patterns before they become trends by aggregating links worth clicking and providing expert analysis that separates signal from noise. We’re excited for you to join us on this trip. 

Get More AI News from Bellwether

Education Evolution: AI and Learning

Newark is one of many school systems across the country piloting and assessing the use of AI tools. In doing so, education leaders must grapple with evolving opinions from key stakeholders like teachers. Survey data from Pew and the RAND Teacher Panel last fall indicated that only 6% of teachers thought AI tools offer “more benefit than harm,” while 25% thought they offer “more harm than benefit.” The remainder thought it’s an equal mix of “benefit and harm” (32%) or were unsure (35%). Yet a new survey from the Walton Family Foundation conducted in May 2024 found that knowledge of and support for AI in education is growing quickly, with 59% of teachers feeling favorably towards chatbots. These survey results demonstrate that educators’ opinions of AI are a nuanced blend of skepticism, optimism, and curiosity. If school systems are serious about integrating AI tools into classrooms, there’s work to be done to get educators on board. 

 The Realm of Possibility

 Teacher’s (AI)de

⚠️ Cautionary Tales

 Hello, Ed: Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) Launches AI Tool

The Latest: AI Sector Updates

OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, and Apple each held recent keynotes and product announcements that unveiled new and more powerful ways to integrate AI into everyday life. The Sal Khan-led demonstration of ChatGPT–4o tutoring his son is one example of how AI products built for a general audience can have education-specific applications. It’s impressive, especially given the progress of ChatGPT in less than two years. But it also has important limitations in an education context – see Dan Meyer and Ben Riley for more on the limits of this generation of Large Language Models (LLMs). 

 Updates From Some of the Largest AI Companies

 Searching With Gen AI: Promising Tech or Highway to Hallucinations?

 How Much Can AI Really Do?

Pioneering Policy: AI Governance, Regulation, Guidance, and More

State policymakers are offering guidance for schools regarding the use of AI, but efforts are unfolding slowly. Absent leadership from state education agencies, districts are establishing policies and guidance on their own or in collaboration with peers. Meanwhile, the patchwork of state policies that govern what children can (and can’t) do is often inconsistent – as a recent Bellwether analysis highlights. Lawmakers considering policies related to children and AI should center the consequences both for children and bodies tasked with enforcing those policies, like schools.

🚧 Road Work Ahead: New State and District Policies

 The Next Generation: Centering Children in AI Policies

We’re sharing the first issue of this newsletter with all our subscribers, but if you want to receive future updates on the latest AI news, be sure to subscribe here

Experts Versus Civilians


David Winston and I discuss the upcoming election in a Bellwether Linkedin Live you can watch via this link. Among other professional work David is on the CBS decision desk for election night, so it’s an opportunity to hear how a professional thinks about the upcoming election. President Biden has his work cut out for him, especially on the economy, but the election is far from settled.

You can view this video here.

Earlier this week I wrote about an overlooked education aspect of the Harrison Butker discourse: The ‘Sir, this is a Wendy’s’ problem:

It seems almost certain that on one of the most special days in their life Butker made someone feel small, bad, or excluded when there was just no reason to do so and he could have made his broader points absent that. I’m not arguing for safetyism, thought and word policing, or any of the other absurdities infecting public discourse. I’m just pleading for manners and decency. For time and place.

My Bellwether colleagues Julie Squire, Marisa Mission, and Paul Beach look at the role of navigators in a high choice environment.

In this home we believe science is real…

Caitlin Clark discourse has been something, huh? It’s hard to miss the gap between actual experts and then the politicians and folks on Twitter/X and armchair types when it comes to discussion of why Clark won’t be on the Olympic roster. The experts talk about differences with the international game, experience, defensive prowess, and physicality. From others it’s talk about her media appeal, excitement, or role in the culture war.

This is a common thing with sports, everyone has an opinion but the experts see almost an entirely different game than the one casual fans watch. I remember watching an MLB baseball game once on TV at a bar with the wife of someone who was playing. There was a guy there vocal and full of opinions about all the mistakes that the manager was making in how he was using the bullpen. After a bit she calmly explained, in an almost My Cousin Vinny-style, all the dynamics this person was missing and why the manager was playing his hand OK.

My own ‘welcome to the NFL’ introduction to this was a few years ago doing some work with Brendan Daly, then a coach for the NFL Rams. The project was about what teaching coaching can learn from NFL coaching, but what was quickly clear to me talking with him was how little even people who consider themselves serious fans really understand about the subtleties of the NFL game – especially the action away from the ball on each play.

This is true in most domains. A gap between how things actually work and how most observers think they work. It’s why it’s useful to seek out professionals. It’s why you probably shouldn’t bet a lot on sports unless you’re a professional gambler.

All this is why I recommend this new podcast from Alex Grodd on transgender medicine. Alex has Dr. Erica Anderson and Dr. Jack Drescher, two specialists who don’t entirely agree, on his Disagreement podcast to discuss the state of evidence and practice. But what they really disagree with is the popular discourse around the issue – on the political right and the political left. That has education implications.

Listen here.

The gap between how these two talk about these issues and what you hear in the public debate, and from leaders in our sector, is startling. For starters they are dismissive of the idea that that schools should socially transition kids absent their parent’s involvement and consent – something of an article of faith with a lot of people in our sector and credulously repeated by journalists. They parse what are complicated medical questions that have been boiled down to slogans by activists on both sides of this issue and also too often accepted uncritically.

Anderson’s work has been especially valuable to me as I’ve tried to learn about this issue and its policy implications and she’s personally been quite brave, empirical, and anti-tribal in how she’s approached these questions. Both she and Drescher are thoughtful and measured.

And where kids are involved is that, rather than activist capture, political sloganeering, and all the rest too much to ask for?

Friday Fish

Steve Rees, an education maven whose photographic work has appeared in various Grateful Dead and Bill Graham retrospectives, wrote a must-read review of Street Data, one of the most popular PD books in education right now.

He also knows his way around a trout stream. Here’s a fish his son caught in the Catskills on a trip the two of them took recently:

Yes. Here is a unique archive of hundreds of pictures of education types with fish they’ve caught. Send me yours!

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Pride Goeth Before The Fool?

Unless you were sedated during May you probably heard the furor about Kansas City Chief place kicker Harrison Butker’s commencement address at Benedictine College, a small conservative Catholic private school in Kansas.

Butker said a number of controversial things in his speech, a lot of stuff I don’t agree with. And then came the predictable overwrought reaction. I don’t mean the criticism, that’s healthy just as it’s healthy Butker can express his views. But Butker discourse really took off – and again a lot of people seemed shocked to learn that a lot of professional athletes are conservative and an NFL sideline is not the hotbed of DEI many seem to think it might be.

Source: Benedictine College

At some level, who cares? This is a particular kind of school and an NFL place kicker’s views on the world have little impact on how you like your coffee in the morning. (Yes, I know he’s done a few other things in life but you would not have heard of him if he couldn’t effectively kick a football under pressure.) But in 2024 there is still no meeting for the people who didn’t like the speech and also didn’t like the hysterical reaction. Or who just didn’t care, which contra the “silence is violence” crowd is fine, too. You can’t get spun up about everything.

Marcus Aurelius reminds us that we always own the option of having no opinion. “There is never any need to get worked up or to trouble your soul about things you can’t control. These things are not asking to be judged by you” he wrote.

Yet one line buried in the address, that did not get as much attention as the bit about marriage roles, stood out to me and made me think that Harrison Butker is probably kind of an asshole. It was this,

I am certain the reporters at the AP could not have imagined that their attempt to rebuke and embarrass places and people like those here at Benedictine wouldn’t be met with anger, but instead met with excitement and pride. Not the deadly sin sort of pride that has an entire month dedicated to it, but the true God-centered pride that is cooperating with the Holy Ghost to glorify him.

I don’t care that he believes this. It’s disappointing, sure, I’d suggest it’s not all that Christian, and he should come check out the 21st Century in America where people can live their lives as they wish. It’s great, fun, and he might even like it. That’s just a gratuitous, ungracious, and unnecessary thing to say at a commencement ceremony where 485 people are getting their diplomas. Even accounting for the specific nature of this school you have to assume, just based on average statistics, there are gay people in that class, and among the family and friends that came to see them get their diplomas and celebrate them.

Here, too, one might channel Aurelius and say nothing. At a commencement. It seems almost certain that on one of the most special days in their life Butker made someone feel small, bad, or excluded when there was just no reason to do so and he could have made his broader points absent that.* I’m not arguing for safetyism, thought and word policing, or any of the other absurdities infecting public discourse. I’m just pleading for manners and decency. For time and place.

To lower the temperature in this country, and our debates about schools, we have to accept that people can believe what they want and allow them to do that insofar as it doesn’t trample the rights of others. You don’t have to bake that cake and we should not compel belief and expression – an issue that is showing up in school law lately. Harrison Butker should argue for what he believes as should those who disagree with him. You just don’t have to be an asshole about it.

*You see a version of this at some high school graduations, too. It’s great to celebrate the students who performed really well, and we should. You can do that, however, without making those who didn’t do as well feel lousy – especially on graduation day. I saw a graduation recently where the superintendent had graduates stand up in groups based on GPA – not a lot of fun for those with lower GPAs! And this at a school that proudly ditched class rank and recognitions of that sort. Pretty much exactly backwards.

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Five Points On ESAs. Plus, New WonkyFolk on Edge of Seventeen, Aspen, RISE, More.

Jed Wallace and I have a new Wonkyfolk out. We talk about the new Bellwether analysis “Edge of Seventeen” about age laws in the United States. (Eduwonk overview here.) Lynne Graziano from Bellwether joins us for the discussion. What makes this especially interesting is not the obvious stuff – everyone knows you can serve in the military at 18 but can’t have a legal drink. Or even the incoherence between states, hello federalism. It’s the incoherence even within states that points up just how muddled things are.

But before we get to all that we disagree about the charter school musical chairs issue, agree about a concerning trend in state superintendent races (Truitt and Baesler in the dock, really, wtf?), talk cross-partisanship, and get a tutorial on Pennsylvania politics.

You can listen here and see show notes, or wherever you get podcasts:

Or watch here if that’s your thing:


I moderated a session at the RISE conference with Indiana’s chief state school officer Katie Jenner, Ralph Smith, Tiffany Justice of Mom’s for Liberty, and Kerri Rodrigues of National Parent Union. You can watch here.

Yes, this headshot makes me look like a serial killer.

I was a participant in an Aspen Institute webinar on “cross partisanship” and new ideas about how to get things done in an environment of intense polarization and negative polarization. You can watch here.


Bellwether is hiring for a partner on its Policy and Evaluation team. Great opportunity to join a dynamic organization and lead impactful work. Learn more and learn how to be considered here.


Louisiana passed an ESA last week. A couple of quick notes on ESAs:

  1. No one knows how ESAs are going to play out. Most people are arguing from whatever their prior views on school choice are.
  2. ESAs will have all the predictable quality issues of early-stage choice programs. Here, again, people’s priors matter. If you think choice programs can improve over time you’ll have one frame on ESAs, if you see it all as pretty constant then you’ll see it differently. Not all voucher programs have become academically stronger as they’ve expanded. Charters are improving, on average. There is something for everyone to seize on. Direct payment plans are not uncommon in public policy, they’re still relatively new in education. Expect bumps.
  3. ESAs are proving to be wildly popular *and* expensive as a result. Those are related. A key metric to look at is people participating in ESAs who were not previously participants in public education. Here again people will look at that footprint differently based on their broader orientation toward public education. But it’s an opportunity for public education, and an upcoming collision.
  4. There is not a singular ESA policy. These programs vary in their characteristics. That will be worth watching. Also, as a result, evaluating them and accountability around them is similarly a mixed bag given how some ESA’s are designed.
  5. You cannot unring this bell. The era of direct payments in education is here. Something like what Louisiana just did would have occasioned an epic freak out 20 years ago, now it’s just another week in May.


Here’s Arlington parent Todd Truitt on why and how Virginia needs some school accountability. In Maryland Carey Wright is asking the same questions.


Freestyling the 6 foot rule had, you know, an effect on schools and ed politics.

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Fast Times Redux

We’re coming into a weekend, my own kids are finishing high school this month. And I made a Fast Times At Ridgemont High reference the other day. So here we go.

Along with books like Patricia Hersch’s Tribe Apart, Fast Times is, in my view, essential to understanding 1980s suburban culture. But where Hersch, and others, documented what was happening or had happened, Cameron Crowe’s 1981 book really anticipated the direction things were going. The movie, directed by Amy Heckerling, while not a favorite of critics, was important as a cultural marker and stands up for capturing a moment in real time. More on that in a second. 

Today, my kids and kids in California follow the same trends on TikTok and the same fashions and trends in the real world. Gather round kids and I’ll tell you about a time before social media, when trends largely moved west to east. When youth culture was transmitted by magazines, what you saw in the real world, and word of mouth. A time when you didn’t have a lot of knowledge about what was happening far away. A kid at your school would come back from California with new clothes, a year later most everyone would have them. 

Anyhow, on Tuesday I posted about our new analysis at Bellwether on the lack of clarity between and within states around the age a young person should be to do various things or make various decisions. It’s a fascinating issue and one that squarely intersects with schools.

I also posted a picture from Fast Times, with Spicoli (Sean Penn) and Jefferson’s brother (Stanley Davis Jr.). It had little to do with the analysis but the post needed art. A certain kind of person hears, “Fast Times” and immediately jumps to ‘that movie is problematic.’ Sometimes they reach out to tell me that. Thanks. I had no idea…Actually, I have some troubling news for you: The ‘80s were problematic. 

What picture did you think I was going to use? This is a family friendly publication. 

The movie captured things that were going on. Cameron Crowe’s job wasn’t to make us better, it was to document and Heckerling’s to entertain. They masterfully did both and the project behind Fast Times is something that should be better known in the education world. Embedding as a student today would likely get you arrested, when Crowe pulled it off things were different. 

A decade ago I was writing a daily “on this day” kind of thing for an education newsletter for RealClear Education with the fantastic Emmeline Zhao. On Judge Reinhold’s birthday, which it turns out is this week, I wrote about Fast Times and why it matters and why high school is still pretty screwed up. Being an adolescent is, too, as our report shows.

Apparently it was OK. Here it is again reprinted below. Enjoy the weekend.

May 21, 2014
It’s Judge Reinhold’s birthday today. The actor was born on this date in 1957 in Delaware. He spent some of his childhood in Virginia and was a student at Mary Washington College for a while. Reinhold’s known for leading roles in Beverly Hills Cop and an acclaimed role as the “close talker” on Seinfeld. But for Americans of a certain age he’ll always be best recalled as high school senior Brad Hamilton in Cameron Crowe’s Fast Times at Ridgemont High.

That film had a who’s who of future movie talent in addition to Reinhold: Sean Penn, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Forrest Whitaker, Eric Stoltz, Anthony Edwards, Nicholas Cage (who appeared under his true name, Nicholas Coppola), and, of course, Phoebe Cates. Ray Watson, who perhaps is best known as a Broadway song and dance performer, is unforgettable as Mr. Hand. “What are you, people? On dope?” The film was based on Cameron Crowe’s book, which he wrote while posing undercover as a student at a California high school in 1979.

Fast Times works because it’s at once ridiculous and also a dead-on encapsulation of high school angst. It veers between the absurd, Sean Penn’s over-the-top Jeff Spicoli who lives only for “tasty waves” and “a cool buzz” to the serious, sexual pressure and teenage pregnancy. Hanging over it all is the palpable sense that despite the pressure and immediacy, real responsibility and stakes lie in wait just around the corner. Crowe stirred that mix just right and the film is as much sociology as it is entertainment. That’s why young people responded to the film even if critics didn’t.

The American high school experience is many things to different people. For some it truly is glory days, for others an important formative period, and for some a period of alienation and difficulty. It’s why we would do well to remember that the stereotypical experience at the comprehensive high school is foreign to many kids. The isolation can be particularly acute in rural communities where a single high school is the focus of so much. With some notable exceptions, overall school systems in all communities generally do a lousy job for the students who need or want something else besides the mainstream. High schools are a part of the American education experience long overdue for more customization.

Technology provides some avenues. Badging and competency-based education can make the high school experience more flexible. But fundamentally, policymakers and educators have to adopt a mindset that there is nothing sacred about the four-year traditional high school experience and students can succeed and thrive with different models.

We’re supposed to reinvent ourselves anyway. As Jeff Spicoli said in Fast Times,

What Jefferson was saying was, Hey! You know, we left this England place ’cause it was bogus; so if we don’t get some cool rules ourselves – pronto – we’ll just be bogus too! Get it?

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Edge Of Seventeen

Chad Aldeman, Lynne Graziano, Andy Jacob, and I have a new analysis out today looking at differences in age policy across the states. Yes, in The Edge of Seventeen, we look at how old you have to be to do different things in different places. It’s a mess! And more interesting than you might think.

Here’s Reason on our analysis and the larger questions around coherence and confusion.

For millennia and across different societies there have been formal and informal rites of passage for young people based on different and shifting conceptions about when and how the transition from child to adult happens. 

This image has relatively little to do with the Edge of Seventeen analysis, but it’s a good opportunity to highlight a Fast Times picture.

Today, in the United States, we have formal laws and regulations and informal secular and religious rituals. For some, a quinceañera, bar mitzvah, hunting trip, or debutante ball mark the entry into adulthood or young adulthood. The age at which one is allowed to formally work, drive a car, or make certain health decisions on their own is also important, and is based upon government sanctioned markers. 

In the past, young people often rushed toward these markers of adulthood, often out of necessity (e.g., needing to work and provide for their family, get married, or engage in community defense). Today some evidence suggests a leeriness toward “adulting” and a growing resistance to taking on some responsibilities of adulthood, for instance financial independence or even driving.

Rites of passage were often a matter of necessity, and in some cases still are today. I once visited what’s left of a ranch in the Utah desert that even in the 21st Century is a long day trip by jeep track or only accessible by river, as we came. Someone I was with had notes on the family that once lived there in the early-20th Century: a boy, his sister, and their father. When the father went to “town” he would leave the boy to care for his sister and run the ranch. The boy was about six, his sister three or four. He was, necessarily given ranch life, armed with a rifle. 

Many of these issues, gender, firearms, social media, or health care occasion intense debate. Less debated are broader questions surrounding them, where are the lines between childhood and adulthood and how should a liberal society recognize and codify them in law?

Today, that would earn you a visit from child protective services. But what would fly, and why? It depends on who you ask because we don’t agree. For example, the age of sexual consent in Montana is 16, in Virginia it’s 18. Are young people in Virginia really two years less mature in their decision-making than young people in Montana? Maybe. Or maybe Montana’s law is irresponsible? Or is the gap simply an artifact of different lawmaking processes and norms? Whatever you think, it’s hard to make a case that the distinction makes any logical sense or is grounded in a body of evidence. These inconsistencies are global, too. Montana and other U.S. states with an age of 16 are not outliers. In England, for example, the age of consent is 16 as well. Yet plenty of reasonable adults think 18 is far more appropriate. 

Despite being a more connected and communicative society than ever before, Edge of Seventeen shows we lack a clear or consistent conception of what it means to be a young person in the United States and consequently what law and policy should be. Where and how are we denying kids agency they should have prior to age 18? Where and how are we letting them make consequential decision too soon? When do laws fail to protect young people and where do we overprotect?

Of course, beyond the formal laws there are also informal distinctions as well. For instance, although the drinking age is 21 across the country, many parents allow their children at least some access to alcohol at younger ages. In other cases, young people find ways to drink alcohol on their own. We can ban minors from accessing porn, it doesn’t mean they’re not.

The current debate about transgender youth, perhaps our highest profile age debate right now, turns in part on age and at what age young people can make certain health care decisions. On the political right there is strong pushback on the idea of medical treatment for people under 18 who identify as transgender. On the political left there is an emphasis on ensuring unfettered access to medical treatment for minors. Yet in red states other kinds of consequential health care access such as mental health, abortion, or STI treatment can be available to minors even without parental consent. And in blue states one finds many restrictions when it comes to other body issues as trivial as piercings or tattoos. 

When Mississippi banned medical procedures for transgender youth part of the reasoning was to protect children from irreversible decisions. Mississippi still allows people under 16 to get married with parental consent and a judge signing off. Hard to argue there is a consistent standard at work. 

Some states are restricting a young person’s ability to control how they are addressed – the name or pronouns they are called in school for example – even as those same young people can make consequential health care and mental health decisions on their own. These examples also illustrate a lack of any sort of logical through line. It’s worth asking questions like why a young person can drive a car at 16 and handle a firearm to hunt or target shoot, but not decide how adults, who in the case of schools are agents of the government, address them in public settings?

Other than the title this, too, has little to do with the analysis. But I needed art for the post and she’s fantastic.

In Alabama you can have a gun at any age, but you can’t smoke until you’re 21. Wyoming, too, lets you have guns at all ages but restricts access to mental health care without parental consent until you’re 18. Rhode Island restricts mental health to 18 as well but the age of sexual consent is 16. Delaware lets you work at 12 but no gambling until you’re 21. You get the idea. There are inconsistencies across states, and within states.

In our analysis we look at coherence and incoherence as a way to frame the issue and illustrate the status quo. But it’s not self-evident that coherence is better. Perhaps these issues are so varied that incoherence is unavoidable, necessary, or even desirable.

Many of these issues, gender, firearms, social media, or health care occasion intense debate. Less debated are broader questions surrounding them, where are the lines between childhood and adulthood and how should a liberal society recognize and codify them in law? If you, left, right, or center, are really spun up about any particular issue have you considered the question more generally?

Schools, especially public schools, are squarely in the crosshairs of many these debates and policy questions because they are where young people spend a lot of time, and represent a place where activists on the right and left have staked out positions on contested political issues. School leaders and teachers have at times injected themselves into these debates as well. Schools also enforce some state laws and policies and school employees are generally mandated reporters on laws involving minors. In different ways, laws affecting everything from driving and employment, access to controlled substances, medical decision-making, social media, and gender and sexuality land at the schoolhouse door.

Our project is designed to call attention to the inconsistencies of our current age-related laws. Though I and the other authors certainly have our own views, and disagree with one another on some things, our goal is not to suggest how you should think about any particular question. We want to spur discussion not police wrong think or suggest a correct answer to specific questions – because on many reasonable people can and will disagree.

That’s because these issues are complicated and individuals will arrive at a position based on a blend of what they know about young people from a scientific standpoint, what they believe from a values or community standards point of view, their own experience, and increasingly, if we’re being honest, from negative polarization on the hot button issues.

That’s hard to falsify. So perhaps instead to have a better conversation about these issues – especially the contentious ones – we should broaden the aperture and think more broadly about what does it mean to be an adolescent in America in 2024? To be, with apologies to Stevie Nicks, on the edge of seventeen?

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Is AI Like The Early Days Of Covid?

A few memories stay with me from the very early days of the pandemic. Mostly about what I got wrong or right, or just got lucky.

My wife and I throw themed dinner parties and on Feb. 29th of 2020 we threw a small one with a leap theme, about great leaps. We served grasshoppers among other jumpy food. The attendees included a managing editor at a media outlet, a former secretary of education, an artist friend, non-profit leaders, a FAANG type, that sort of thing. People who were generally connected to information. By that point everyone knew it was bad news, the worst was coming, and part of the conversation tended to, ‘probably the last dinner party for a while, enjoy it.’ People offered predictions about what was about to happen. I remember one guest saying that a lot of people were about to die, we just didn’t know who yet or all the characteristics they might share. It was odd to be talking about that over wine and leap themed dishes as the world sort of ticked on.

That was a Saturday. Early the next week I remember being at the supermarket with my kids. We filled three carts. They thought this was beyond embarrassing. “Everyone is staring at us,” one said with dismay because that really is hell on earth for an 8th-grader. They always think everyone is staring at them, in this instance they were right. We were buying a lot of groceries. A week or so later? Well, they they were glad for it.

Here’s the thing. We were late to all this and I slept on Covid in its early days, assuming it would be disruptive but more or less like a bad flu year. I chocked some of the more severe reports up to click-hungry media. In February 2020, some schools in Virginia were actually closed because of flu, so episodic not widespread closures wasn’t a radical idea. Epidemiologists, though, knew this was not the case. The rest of us not yet. Professionally, I underestimated it in the early going, still wondering if we could pull off a meeting in California in early March or some school visits and spring training in Florida before things had to really close down.

We’re not “preppers.” I don’t have a bunker in my back yard, closest full of ARs, or a year’s worth of food. I stockpile bourbon and DVDs of 80s films. Nor am I any more prescient than the next person. But I am connected to pretty good information flow. I have friends in various fields, government, aviation, sports, medicine and, although later than some, once I started paying attention I was able to piece together what was going on and likely to happen. (I was also moonlighting as an EMT doing 911 at the time so though we were basically treated like mushrooms we got some trickle down by early March). By March people I knew were making big financial or logistical moves. A friend who was getting regular non-public briefings told me that first week of March that all the decisions about work, life, travel, that seemed debatable would soon be obvious. It became alarming.

Most of the country was still not yet alarmed.

It seems like the same thing is happening with AI now, albeit in slower motion. To be clear, I don’t think AI is simply something to be alarmed about. It’s not like Covid. With AI there will be upsides and downsides, as with any novel technology. But, those downsides will be as acute in some cases as the upsides are profound. Adverse consequences are talked about quietly, generally in my experience by elites or those connected to the information flow. ‘A lot of people…we just don’t know who yet.’ (My own hunch is the next recession will create the permission structure for layoffs that are actually AI-related and those jobs will not come back.)

Some people are in the know, some are waking up, some have no idea. In that way it feels a lot like the early days of Covid.

Via DALL·E 2

In my experience, most conferences or meetings about AI have a very ‘in the know’ vibe to them. At one level that’s normal. If you went to a charter school meeting in the 1990s, for instance, you were talking about a new disruptive innovation that few people were yet aware of. I raise a lot of money for cancer research and try to stay connected but I’m sure there are all manner of emerging treatments I am unaware of but are common knowledge among insiders. Hang out with professionals in almost any field if you want to understand how little you know about some things. But AI is different in that the effects will be broad across the economy and society, they will affect all of us.

Some people are preparing for those effects more than others. They’re counseling their kids. They’re thinking about their careers. They’re thinking about efficiency and upside as well as risk. Others are unaware and will be buffeted. In our little corner of the world, people talk in hushed tones about what this might mean for education’s labor market and various roles wary of causing alarm or setting off political tripwires. In the media world you hear conversations about the serious impacts of AI on how people find and consume news. In elite government circles there is attention being paid.

If you trust tech, trust our tech leaders, think they have everyone’s best interests at heart, then rest easy and carry on. If you don’t, then something is coming that a small group of people understand – like Covid not fully, but in its broad dimensions – and most people don’t. This doesn’t mean you should go bury a shipping container in your yard. Or buy guns and antibiotics. (Though I will say those old John Cusack films stand up and you’ll want them on hand regardless.) But it does mean leaders should probably do more to ask questions, democratize the flow of information, and help people prepare for opportunity and disruption. Help people understand what’s happening and what it might mean – knowing we can’t be sure. And be more candid about the potential upsides and downsides. We should do that less in cloistered groups and as much as possible in a more open way around the sector and particularly among its organizing entities – various organizations and associations.

In 2020 we didn’t have a leader with the skills and manner to do this for Covid. With AI, in 2024, it’s on all of us.

This is an ad (but an important one that might save a life!)

This blog/newsletter is free. But cancer research is not. That’s why each summer I ride my bike 192 miles across Massachusetts to raise money for the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute in the Pan Mass Challenge. This year, for a few reasons, I’ve set a goal of $45,000. That’s about 50% higher than past years so I need as much help as I can get to reach it. If you want to learn more or consider donating – 100% of your donation goes to Dana-Farber not overhead and it’s tax deductible – you can do both via this link.

From Bellwether

Here’s a new analysis on school finance in metro areas. Here’s a USAT story featuring it. And here’s a Reason article doing the same.

Next week I’m participating in this webinar with Aspen about de-polarization and bipartisan policy work. Karen Nussle is a participant too. More on her below.

Nota Bene

Ruy Teixeira is trying to warn you that the election’s demographic contours may not be what you think.

Kevin Huffman notes some teacher evaluation noise and signal problems.

Chris Stewart with a reminder that not everything that’s a problem can be laid on charters (and also that when it comes to race and education horseshoe politics are a real thing).

This is the hero we need.

Friday Fish Porn

Speaking of Karen Nussle, who is a great person in the sector, here she is with some fish. A largemouth bass and a pike both from the same lake in Wisconsin.

Friday fish what? Yes. Here is a unique archive of hundreds of pictures of education types with fish they’ve caught. Send me yours!

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Charter Schools Might Not Have A Chair When The Music Stops. Plus, Remembering Greg Schneiders.

Recent And Coming Attractions

I discussed Virginia’s efforts on school accountability with Susan Pendergrass on her “There’s A Policy For That” podcast.

This month, on the 22nd I’m participating in this Aspen Institute webinar about advancing bipartisan policy ideas in a hyper-polarized time. I’ll be at the RISE conference in D.C. on the 23rd, moderating what should be a lively panel about school choice, parent voice, and pluralism.

ICYMI new briefs this week on school finance as part of Bellwether’s Splitting the Bill series this week, this time on special education.

Let’s Hope The Music Never Stops

The National Alliance for Public Charter Schools made an inspired choice in Starlee Coleman as its next President and CEO. That was announced this week. She brings political acumen, public affairs experience, and has run a state charter school association – as a former board member of one I can tell you that’s harder than it looks! (I also should note I was a founding board member of the Alliance). Nina Rees did a great job at the Alliance, and will be a tough act to follow so this is a solid choice.

One reason it’s a good choice is that the charter sector has some particular challenges ahead. (It’s important to note it’s a freewheeling sector and the Alliance doesn’t call the shots.) The challenges are somewhat ironic, of course, because overall charter performance continues to get better and is in some cases simply outstanding. The reasons why some charters outperform haven’t been some great mystery for a while. They’re common sense. But in a sector where, ‘it’s all about what’s good for the kids’ is the benediction at any meeting, charters somehow remain controversial in a lot of circles despite turning in results we don’t see a lot.

The other day I posted on Twitter that while I get paid to do elaborate analyses of various questions, the challenge facing charters is pretty simple so it’s a freebie:

I was screwing around but it’s a real point. This is part of the political problem charters have, we’ll talk about the other part in a second and they are to some extent related. A few things are happening. One, big statewide universal voucher plans, ESA’s, are passing now on the regular. 13 states have ESA’s of some kind, more will this year. It used to be a big deal when you had a pilot voucher program in places like D.C., Cleveland, and Milwaukee. Now another state passes universal choice and it’s like, yawn. And whether you love them, hate them, or are a wait and see how they play out type, these programs are wildly popular right now. Speaks volumes about where the energy is.

Second, the Republicans are, on average, a lot more interested in ESA’s than other choice options. They like the universal features, less regulations, less publicness, all of it. Democrats, meanwhile, mostly see those things as flaws. For a while there was stasis in this debate, charters were something of a compromise. Charters offered less regulations, could be universal, but they had key elements of publicness. They were an outpost for Democrats and a way station for Republicans. The ground has shifted and post-pandemic the energy is with rapidly expanding choice.

This perhaps would not be such a big problem for charters if they enjoyed a strong base of support in the Democratic party and were genuinely bipartisan in 2024. But they don’t. They’re not. Sure, there are still some pro-charter Dem governors, but Joe Biden cut the public charter school program at the Department of Education in his budget. Tells you what you need to know. Charters enjoy support among base Democratic voters, but not among elites and powerbrokers. And as the Democratic party becomes more a party of the highly educated and affluent suburbs this further pressures and threatens charter support.

For their part, many charter leaders read the political problem with Democrats as a challenge of convincing Democrats that charters are, in fact, the good guys. That they themselves are the good guys. This often showed up as a “we’re for social justice, too!” agenda.

The problem is, the Democratic opposition to charters is not about the politics of the schools, which were always to some extent left wing ideas about opportunity, equity, economic mobility, and empowerment funded with right wing money that wanted choice by any means. It’s not about the politics of the personal either. Rather, the opposition is about the intraparty politics of the Democratic coalition. Democrats are cross-pressured between education producers and education consumers and the producers – in particular the teachers unions – are incredibly powerful in American politics and especially in the Democratic coalition. You can dress it up however you like but that’s the dynamic. Full stop. It’s why, despite the evidence, you don’t have more Dem charter supporters.

The parents may want more charters, the polling and preferences on the ground clearly show that, but the parents are not yet organized. The teachers unions are. In politics concentrated beats diffuse most of the time. And the parents are less interested in the wide-ranging social justice agenda than you probably heard at the last education conference you attended. They just want good safe schools and are less interested in discipline reform, DEI, culture wars, and so forth than your median education non-profit employee and certainly less than the activists. People are pragmatic, if not conservative, about their own kids.

So what’s happened in practice is many charters have tried to play up to the party that structurally really can’t embrace them while antagonizing, or on a good day giving the cold shoulder, to the one that could. And in the process they’ve started to dilute and blur the crispness of their brand and differentiation, too.

The Republicans are no picnic in general these days. Here, although they’re allergic to accountability in some of these ESA programs, they are pretty good on school choice. That’s the awkward reality Democratic education reformers have to accept. What charters need to do is engage, maintain, and build on that Republican support while also organizing parents to actually pressure Democratic leaders to moderate their posture here and again make charters a default consensus position. That can’t be about partisan politics, it has to be about charter politics.

Otherwise, we have to ask, when the music stops and ESAs are even more established and the Dems have moved further from an embrace of any kind of school choice, will there be a chair for public charter schools?

Greg Schneiders

The political world, and the education world, lost a good friend and wonderful person earlier this week when Greg Schneiders passed unexpectedly. Greg was a pollster and strategist, loyal Democrat and veteran of many Democratic campaigns. I interviewed him about all that a few years ago just prior to the pandemic. More recently he was working to try to ensure that Donald Trump doesn’t return to The White House.

Far more important than all that he was just a terrific person to be around. Politics has great people and ones who are more of an acquired taste. Ones who think they’re God’s gift to the rest of us and humble ones. Greg was humble and great. A lot fun with a contagious joie de vivre and appreciation of the charmed life. Whip smart. Wise counsel. I worked with him on some projects but really connected when we realized we had some friends in common in the education and media scenes. So what I really treasure are boozy lunches and dinners, usually at The Palm (the “cafeteria” to Greg), discussing, sometimes arguing, politics and current affairs and learning from his stories and experiences. After he moved from Washington I looked forward to his visits back to the city and a long lunch or dinner with a small crew. Like so many, I will miss him.

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Joe Biden & NPR Have The Same Problem, Jed Wallace And I Have The Same Wardrobe, Plus Edujobs, Teachers And AI!

Jed and I have a new WonkyFolk out. Most of you listen on various podcasts apps but if you watch on YouTube you’ll see that although we don’t preplan Jed and I are aligned and on point on fashion. We talk about AI, ASU-GSV, charter school history, charter school present, politics, and why Jed wants charter folk to get crisp. I own up to my biggest parenting mistake and being a lousy boyfriend. 

Words On Fashions

ICYMI – I wrote recently about why these phony hair shirts reformers are wearing are a bad fit. Sure there have been mistakes and missteps but that’s true in any area of social policy and there has also been progress. Fordham republished it this week.

In the Richmond Times I wrote about school accountability in Virginia and why we’re long overdo to have some. There is pretty much nothing Glenn Youngkin has said about school accountability that the Education Trust and various civil rights groups didn’t used to say as well. The only thing that’s changed is the politics.


And people said teachers would be slow to adopt this stuff! A Maryland teacher used AI to create deepfake recordings of his principal. Chaos ensued.

Edujob! (Paid advertisement)

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Oh Dems…

In February on a WonkyFolk I said I thought Joe Biden’s electoral chances were better than it appeared. I still think that although there are obvious caveats. First, this mess on campus is a liability. Second, the convention in Chicago, which could mar things right as most people start paying attention to politics. And then third, of course, health and gaffes. That’s fine with me as far as a status quo, Donald Trump is unfit in my view and so I want to see Biden prevail. But it’s worth asking, given Trump’s record, lack of support from his cabinet when he was president, and that most charitably you could say he was unconcerned with illegal acts to thwart the the transfer of power, why the hell is the election even this close?

There are a lot of reasons why, and education is not foremost amongst them. But education does matter as a frame and in a close election, everything matters. It turns out that Black and Hispanic parents are a demographic quite likely to be switching from Biden to Trump. (In a close election switchers matter a lot, too, because they take a vote and get a vote).

From The Economist:

There are a few plausible reasons why this might be (everyone will graft their favorite one on). But it does align with some other polling. Here’s an interesting take on some of the dynamics.

Meanwhile, DFER has a new poll also suggesting trouble on the education issue specifically.

(If you want an unsparing take on all this here’s former DC Mayor Adrian Fenty).

None of this is all that surprising, President Biden has an education policy pretty skewed towards white progressives. People care. What is surprising? He already has those votes in the bag. His immediate political problem is a bleed he can ill-afford among Black and Hispanic voters. Here, education might help, or at a minimum the White House might practice a little more do no harm in its politics. Cutting the public charter school budget is a signal there is just no reason to send. It tickles the teachers’ union, sure, but you already had their endorsement.

In the Uri Berliner piece on NPR that caused the recent dust up and cost him his job he noted:

The New York Times confirmed the same demographic challenges despite an emphasis on diversity at NPR.

It’s not hard to discern why. The data are clear that the median Black or Hispanic voter is to the political right of the median white progressive. Yet white progressives graft their own political preferences onto “people of color,” who are in fact a diverse group as far as viewpoint is concerned, and more generally. They are mostly, like the rest of us, normies. It’s why, politically, although consultants keep reinventing the wheel you can do a lot worse than a good schools, safe neighborhoods, economic opportunity agenda.

This idea that everyone is super-progressive is reinforced by the bubbles people operate in. If you work in an education non-profit, or perhaps at NPR (though I used to do paid commentary for them I have never worked there) you’re not going to run into a lot of Black conservatives, for instance. What’s more, the big divides are in fact by education level and geography – as Berliner noted about NPR’s listenership. You do see that same issue show up in elite education circles.

The sooner education leaders key in on this the better it will be for the political health of the public schools. The sooner Joe Biden’s political team does the better it will be for the country.

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Buck Up!

When my daughters were pre-teens they came home from school one day alarmed. During a lesson on climate change the teacher or some part of the lesson, it was never quite clear, had basically stated that absent radical attention to warming there would be little hope for survivability on earth after 2030. This was during peak Thunberg-mania.

I remember having a few thoughts. First, I’m someone deeply concerned about climate change but this isn’t what the evidence shows and is a bananas lesson. But also, even assuming this is what the evidence convincingly shows, these are really young kids, what would be the point of telling them anyway?

This episode occurred to me recently in the context of the constant, and weirdly fashionable, bellyaching by reformers about how education reform has accomplished so little if anything at all. Oddly this is one place reformers and anti-reformers seem to agree these days, even as the evidence indicates it’s not true. What’s more, even assuming it was in fact the case, if you’re an advocate why the hell would you run around braying?

Has everything gone swimmingly, of course not. But in the context of U.S. social policy, until a few years ago we were making what would be considered good progress. (It’s worth noting how long social policy change takes in a country like this – perhaps the recent quite rapid progress in issues like gay and transgender rights has skewed perceptions.)

Until ESSA and the Obama Administration’s decision to throw in the towel on accountability student achievement was on a steady, if modest, growth path. Students furthest from opportunity were making gains. Not enough, but gains. The pandemic, of course, scrambled everything but we should not lose sight of those earlier trajectories – that are averages across an entire student population. People will argue about counterfactuals and the pace of change, but “barely budged,” which you often hear, this is not.

Here’s a deeper dive on all this from Tom Kane and several colleagues. Tom, who while being perhaps the most passionate voice on the urgency of pandemic learning loss, also suggests we may have the longer-term story of achievement wrong. Here’s Rick Hanushek and several colleagues on gaps, “We find a steady, albeit modest, reduction in the SES-achievement relationship over the past four decades.” Other data indicate the same thing about low-achievers, notable progress during the standards-era toward what we used to call equity.

Time to throw a party? Nope. The data are all as sobering as encouraging. But it does mean the Dante-like abandon all hope approach to talking about educational progress is not only politically stupid whether you’re a reformer, staunch public school supporter, or both, it’s also empirically questionable.

There are also plenty of other examples.

I can remember being lectured by the smart set in education that KIPP would never have more than 15 schools and was consequently more or less a distraction I was naive to even be interested in. (The same people said Teach For America would be perhaps a boutique program of 500 teachers a year if they were really lucky.) By extension most people thought Bill Clinton’s goal of 3,000 charter schools was just throwaway political hyperbole. Today there are more than 7,000 charter schools (and about 275 of them are KIPP schools). Are charters all fantastic, no. But many are and the data shows on average they’re getting better and are a good bet as a policy. And there are inferences you can draw on why that is. If you had told people 25 or even 20 years ago that there would be so many you would have been greeted with a lot of skepticism.

More people are going to college, too. Again, not an unvarnished blessing given the mixed quality and ROI of higher education, but also on average for the good. Especially for low-income students in quality higher education programs.

Standards are also improving. There is plenty to critique about President Obama’s education record but it seems inarguable that in aggregate state standards were better in 2016 than they were in 2008 and he and Arne Duncan played a role in nudging that along. Standards are also more specific and actionable for teachers, and more often aligned with curriculum. We’re also seeing a boom in high quality curriculum hitting the market and the focus on curriculum is a welcome and noteworthy change. In addition to being good for students, curricular support makes the job of teaching more sustainable.

That’s in part because of another good news story, we’re finally getting serious about reading and knowledge rich instruction and curricula. The politically fashionable but largely ineffective approaches are being sidelined, an evidence-based approach to reading is taking hold. Is this arguably a half-century overdue? Yes. But you can bemoan that or appreciate that late is better than never. It’s still progress.

On all these issues you saw a combination of government activity, philanthropy, and social entrepreneurs of different sorts. The private sector also played an important role in some key aspects including innovation. And that activity for a time engaged journalists and policy leaders. It was exciting.

If we’re being honest the biggest barrier to a lot of changes has been and continues to be the constantly changing fads and politics in education. On reading, curriculum, or assessment too many people figure out what is politically fashionable and proceed from there. I’ve had people tell me that phonics is just a Republican way of teaching reading. That’s idiotic. That sort of ethos is why the gap between evidence and practice is often so substantial and preference falsification is rampant.

This is also the same problem we see now with everyone having the mopes about education improvement and reform. Like those tan shoes with white soles it seems like every dude was suddenly wearing, it’s just the fashionable thing.

It’s remarkable how often you hear at an education meeting that little or nothing has improved in schools, or even that things are basically the same as they were during Jim Crow. It’s complete nonsense, of course, most people are smart, well-read enough, and aware of the larger world to know this (at least I sure hope that’s the case). Yet it’s the fashion right now to be in that mode, you get socially and professionally rewarded for it even as it’s creating a culture at odds with high-expectations and optimism for young people.

We’ve also created a culture where saying there has been progress or things aren’t so bad is likened to being blind to the problems. Progress and continuing challenges are not mutually exclusive. This country, and this sector, has made enormous progress *and* there is still a lot of work to do.

But, obviously, to do that work you need people to believe it’s possible. That’s why saying there is no progress, woe is us, and all that is insane as an advocacy strategy. As we’ve discussed, Joe Biden is not going to lead a parade, but he’ll get in front of one. So will most pols. But who wants to lead or be anywhere near the parade of Eeyores? Right now the message to politicians, philanthropy, and media is a dour if not repellent one.

Sure, if you genuinely believe education is not a lever for change or empowerment then you should go work in a different sector or on different issues. Reasonable people can disagree about the best way to effect change. Otherwise, let’s stop admiring the problems and get back at it with a lot more energy, new ideas, and some fresh arguments and debates.

Here’s the bottom line: Until the one-two punch of ESSA and the pandemic achievement trends were going in the right direction – especially for students on the wrong end of the achievement gap. And the supports for students, whether new school options or curriculum are improving. There is pent up demand and increasingly supply around innovation.

That’s not a bad time to work in education, it should be an exciting time. Reform has hardly been flawless and hasn’t achieved its loftier goals and at the same time evidence of progress is all around. This sort of fits and starts progress is how social policy change generally happens. In fact, given how stubbornly resistant to change the education system is, how political, and how fad driven, the narrative that nothing has worked is pretty much backwards.

We should say so.

Eclipse Reax:

Monday I wrote about the eclipse. They’re amazing to experience – especially totality. Yet in some cases schools were not embracing that. I got emails with stories of ‘don’t worry we’re closing the blinds’ and ‘out of an abundance of caution we’re keeping everyone inside.’ I heard from someone in Boston saying indoor activities were being canceled so kids could be home safe with their parents. One parent from a school making sure kids would not see the eclipse wrote, “Such a missed opportunity to get kids excited about the universe and its wonders.” Exactly, this is something to be awed by not fearful of. Why are we teaching kids anything different?

But the good news is we have two decades to prepare for the next one here in the U.S. So order those eclipse glasses now.

San Diego:

We’re going to have a lively and fun discussion about AI next week in San Diego, please join us if you can.

Friday, so fish.

Going vintage today with the Friday fish porn. Here’s Ben Sayeski of ESC, a former principal who moved into data visualization with a nice Alaska salmon. Not his first time here.

Check out this unique archive of hundreds of pictures of education types with fish. Send me yours!

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